Ciekawy tekst autorstwa szanowanego w świecie inwestycyjnym Michael J. Mauboussin’a.
- „Of the top 10 companies by market capitalization in 1986, only General Electric, AT&T, and Exxon Mobil remain in the group today. Google, Amazon.com, and Facebook were not even dreams. In 1986, Microsoft, Oracle, Adobe, and Sun Microsystems went public.”
- „The average half-life of a public company is about a decade, which means that the investable universe is in flux.”
- „Humans tend to think by analogy, which can create some cognitive trouble. One issue is that a single analogy, or even a handful of analogies, may fail to reflect a full reference class of relevant cases. For example, rather than asking whether this turnaround is similar to a prior turnaround, it is useful to ask for the base rate of success for all turnarounds.”
- Za Buffettem: „I always look at IQ and talent as representing the horsepower of the motor, but that the output—the efficiency with which that motor works—depends on rationality. A lot of people start out with 400-horsepower motors but only get a hundred horsepower of output. It’s way better to have a 200-horsepower motor and get it all into output.”
Oryginalny link: https://research-doc.credit-suisse.com/